This is not a market report. It is my read, as someone who works in this market every day, on what the trade war may mean for buyers and sellers in North Oshawa. What I can tell you is what the data is showing me right now and where I think it points.
Canadian real estate prices have been declining for the better part of three years. In communities like ours, that correction has been deep and in many cases, it has run its course. Homes that sold for $1.4 and $1.5 million in 2022 are trading today in the $950,000 to $1.1 million range. That is not a market in freefall. That is a market that has found its floor.
The federal government clearly read the same data. The HST rebate on new construction, up to $130,000 back on eligible purchases signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027, is one of the most significant buyer incentives introduced in a generation. It did not happen by accident. It was a deliberate move to put a floor under new home prices and get buyers off the sidelines. It is working.
Then came the trade war.
Tariffs on lumber, steel, and building materials are adding real cost pressure to every new home under construction in this country. Builders will either pass those costs through and raise prices, or pull back on new phases altogether and reduce supply. If you are a buyer looking at new construction today, both of those outcomes point in the same direction: the prices you are seeing right now may not be around for much longer.
On the resale side, uncertainty creates pause. Buyers become more selective and slower to move. The homes that sell in that environment are the ones priced correctly from day one and positioned in front of the right people. The ones sitting at 50, 100, and 150 days are almost always the ones that started too high and spent weeks chasing a market that was moving away from them. Pricing your home properly and aggressive targeted marketing has never been more important.
For buyers: The market may be shifting. If you are looking at a new build, your window to buy at today's prices may be closing. The HST rebate window closes March 31, 2027. Material costs are rising. Waiting rarely improves those conditions.
For sellers: If you are thinking about selling in the next 12 to 18 months, getting ahead of any softening is almost always better than reacting to it.
Real estate has been Canada's most reliable long-term wealth builder through every economic cycle of the past century. A trade war is noise. Pricing, timing, and preparation are the signal.
