Here is the good news first. New home buyers are back. Across the GTA, single-family new home sales in August ran well above their 10-year average, and the HST rebate is the main reason. Buyers who sat on the fence for two years are signing again.
Now the real talk. On September 8, Canada answered the latest U.S. tariffs with counter-tariffs of its own, and a lot of them land on building materials: lumber, plywood, steel and aluminum. Builders pay more for every home still under construction. That does not show up in prices overnight, but it points one way. Today's new home prices may be the low point.
Resale is another story. In Oshawa, the average August sale was $652,775 (TRREB Market Watch, August 2026), and sellers are competing with each other for a smaller pool of buyers. You can see it in our own comp zone: eight homes listed and none sold since July.
For buyers: this is a good window, on both new and resale. For sellers: price matters more than it has in years. The homes that sold this year were priced right from day one.
